The Article below was published in Vol. 136, Issue 4 of the Lake Forest College Stentor on December 4, 2020.
Jovana Jovanovska ’23
Staff Writer
Will the COVID-19 pandemic challenge the way we usually spend Christmas? With less than a month until one of the most celebrated holidays in the world, there’s a lot of anticipation about how it will affect the spread of the virus. If we follow the trend during Thanksgiving, where—despite the numerous warnings—over 1 million people decided to fly for the holiday, according to CNN, we might not be off to a good start.
The newly developed vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech (USA and Germany), Moderna (USA), Oxford Uni-AstraZeneca (UK), and Gamaleya (Russia) have promising results with reports saying that they have an efficiency of over 90 percent, according to BBC. Although there remains skepticism over the safety of the vaccines, the trial results the companies have provided might bring more hope in our return to “normal” life as we once knew it.
While we are waiting for new developments, there has been a significant surge in COVID-19 positive cases in November. In the US, as of November 30, 2020, there have been 13,447,627 total cases and 267,302 deaths since the pandemic has started, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control. On November 30, there were 152,022 new cases reported, with similar numbers throughout the whole month. The number of new cases of COVID-19 has doubled from the month of October.
Based on last week’s data, states that have registered the most cases are Minnesota, South Dakota, and North Dakota, with 107.6, 107.1, and 98.8 cases per 100,000, respectively. The Midwest still remains strongly affected by the pandemic. In terms of deaths, there is a similar trend, with most deaths in the last week registered in the Midwest, including South Dakota, North Dakota, Illinois, Iowa, and Michigan. The only outcast in this list is New Mexico, with 1.2 deaths per 100,000 in the past week.
Figure 1: US COVID-19 Cases Reported to the CDC in the Last 7 Days, by State/Territory
Even though the US overall has had an increase in cases, Illinois experienced a decrease in cases at the end of this month. In early and mid-November, there were more than 10,000 new cases every day, whereas in the last seven days there have been less than 10,000 cases with an exception on November 25 and 26, 2020.
Figure 2: Daily trends in number of COVID-19 cases in Illinois reported to CDC
Lake County and Lake Forest also experienced a decrease in incidence rate of COVID-19. On November 1, 2020, the average incidence rate per 100,000 people in Lake County was 41.2, according to data obtained on the City of Lake Forest’s website. The highest incidence rate in Lake County was collected on November 15, when it reached 83.2 per 100,000.
In the city of Lake Forest, the incidence rate started increasing in late October and, by November 1, it was at 23 per 100,000. The incidence rate reached its highest on November 23, when it was measured to be 51.4 per 100,000. At the end of November, the number started dropping again and reached 41.2 per 100,000 on November 30. Lake Forest did not have the same drastic drop in the incidence rate as Lake County, but it’s still experiencing an overall decrease.
Figure 3: 7 Day Rolling Average Incidence Rate of COVID-19 Tests in Lake Forest and Lake County
When looking at a global scale, there have been 63,245,164 cases and 1,469,469 deaths as of December 1, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The continents leading in the number of cases are once again America, Europe, and Asia with 27,041,305, 18,202,050, and 15,775,670 cases, respectively. In the Americas, besides the US, countries that have reported most cases have been Brazil (6,335,878), Argentina (1,424,518) and Colombia (1,316,806). In Europe, Russia is leading in reporting most cases with a number of 2,322,056, followed by France (2,222,488) and Spain (1,648,187). In Asia, India continues to have the highest number of cases on the continent by reporting 9,462,809, with Iran (962,070) positioning itself second, and Indonesia third with 538,883 cases. Africa and Oceania have 2,174,027 and 51,416 cases, respectively, with the most-affected countries being South Africa (790,004) and Australia (27,904).
Figure 4: Distribution of cases of COVID-19 by continent as of December 1
November led to an increase in COVID-19 cases around the world, showing us that the pandemic still poses a great risk for everyone, and especially for the most vulnerable groups in our communities. The development of vaccines might help finally combat the virus and allow us to safely return to our normal lives once again. In the meantime, we can cautiously enjoy the winter holidays and prepare to go return to campus in February.
