The Article below was published in Vol. 135, Issue 2 of the Lake Forest College Stentor on October 18, 2019
By Emma Overton ‘22
Managing and News Section Editor
To address questions of Lake Forest College students and staff over the possible impeachment of President Donald Trump, a panel of Lake Forest political science professors presented an event in the Skybox on October 11, 2019, entitled “Presidential Impeachment: What Is It?”
Professors Zachary Cook, Siobhan Moroney, and Evan Oxman from the Department of Politics provided explanations and fielded questions from more than two dozen of the College’s students and staff members in attendance at the lunchtime event concerning the September 24, 2019 announcement of the formal impeachment inquiry of President Trump by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D).
According to the panelists, the formal inquiry is only one part of the larger impeachment process provided for by the Constitution, where the House of Representatives, through its Judiciary Committee, determines if sufficient evidence of wrongdoing exists to bring the House to vote on charges of impeachment.
While Oxman noted that “impeachment is largely a political process, not a legal process, [that is] as much theater as anything else,” he explained that if a simple majority of the House votes for impeachment, the Senate then conducts a trial. A two-thirds majority in the Senate is required to convict and remove a president from office—which has never successfully happened.
All the panelists noted that due to the rarity of presidential impeachment in America only two sitting presidents, Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton, were impeached by the House; yet, these presidents were not removed from office by Senate action.
Explaining the possible outcomes of the current impeachment inquiry, Oxman noted that if the process reaches a vote in the House of Representatives, the “Nixon model of impeachment is more likely, where Nixon resigned before he could face the possibility of impeachment” than going to a Senate trial. However, Moroney stated that the “Clinton model is also possible, where Clinton survived impeachment and was not removed and the process actually allowed for him to gain popularity.”
When an audience member asked if the evidence for impeachment really mattered if the impeachment process was solely political, Moroney said that it did, noting that the evidence against Nixon “turned the tide on him during his impeachment process and caused Republicans who previously stood by him to turn against him.”
In response to a student’s question about the effect of the impeachment inquiry on the president’s future, Moroney said that “if impeachment and removal occur, Trump would not be considered a criminal and would become a private citizen.” Cook added that “although [Trump] could not run for president again, he could run for other offices.”
Agreeing with Moroney, Oxman spoke to the paradoxical nature of impeachment regarding public opinion, noting that “the best way for Trump to get reelected is for him to be impeached because it will rile up his base to support him even more.”
Echoing Oxman, Cook told the audience to “remember that Trump is still popular among the Republican base who will stand by the president, because even if they don’t like him, they will make sure that a Democrat does not get elected as president.
Toward the end of the event, when a student asked whether the panelists thought the president was worried about the possibility of impeachment, Moroney, who said she did think the president was concerned, answered: “Yes, I think he is turned up to eleven right now;” while, Oxman noted that “part of the administration thinks the impeachment inquiry is [politically] good for [his supporters], but they are probably going back and forth.”
Addressing the early responses by Senators (who have yet to hear the findings of the House Judiciary Committee) to the impeachment inquiry, Oxman noted that “we don’t poll the jury before a case.” Additionally, Oxman recommended that the audience compare the flip-flopped nature of “the statements of Representatives Jerry Nadler (D) and Lindsey Graham (R) during the impeachment of Bill Clinton to the statements of the two men now to see the political nature of the impeachment process.”
Responding to questions regarding her prediction concerning the outcome of the formal impeachment inquiry of President Trump, Moroney said: “Today, I would say that impeachment and removal will occur, but who knows what will happen tomorrow?”
Summing up her impression of the event, Allie Caskey ‘22 of New Lenox, Illinois, noted that “the event was informative [and] unbiased, [which] allowed me to walk away with a much better understanding of the impeachment process.”
Emma Overton can be reached at overtoneg@mx.lakeforest.edu.
